The Director Who Became Combative
A director grew combative after being passed over. Leadership saw a personality problem. I saw two possible structures: reactive to lost position, or empire-building. Same behavior, different engines, different futures. I predicted: replatform her and watch. If reactive, she calms within weeks. If empire-building, she escalates. Three weeks later, she calmed.
The situation
A director on a superintendent's cabinet had accumulated significant informal influence—Grip without Claim. When passed over for a promotion, she became combative. The superintendent saw a personality problem.
The diagnosis
I saw drift: her conception was "this authority is mine." Leadership's conception was "we loaned it, and it's negotiable." Same position. Misaligned stories. Collision.
But I also saw two possible fears: she was protecting position (reactive), or she was protecting a conception of herself as the rightful leader (empire-building). Same behavior. Different engines. Different futures.
The prediction
I told the superintendent: replatform her and watch. If it's reactive, she calms within weeks. If it's empire-building, she escalates.
What happened
Three weeks later, she calmed. The prediction held. This is methodology, not intuition.